During a World Cup year, club performances take a backseat as the international tournament reshapes the Ballon d’Or race. Exceptional club seasons can easily be overshadowed once the global stage takes over, and this tournament is already drastically altering the field of favorites before the final rounds.
Messi rises 966%
Leo Messi’s odds have skyrocketed from a marginal 0.97% before the tournament to 10.34%, a 966% surge. The Argentine has climbed to fifth favorite, trailing only Kane, Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise. Betfair data suggests a once-unthinkable ninth Ballon d’Or is now firmly back on the table if Argentina keeps winning.
Kane holds on, Mbappé presses
Harry Kane maintains his top spot, improving slightly from 20.11% to 22.27%. However, Kylian Mbappé poses a massive threat, surging 343% from 4.36% to 19.30%. Driven by seven World Cup goals and France’s deep run, Mbappé has answered Real Madrid critics and sits just three percent behind Kane, with the duo controlling over 41% of total odds.
Bellingham and Haaland run riot
Other stars have revived their chances through the tournament. Jude Bellingham entered the top 10 with a 566% jump (from 0.64% to 4.26%) following a quiet club season. Erling Haaland’s odds rose 243% to 6.59%, propelled by seven goals and Norway’s shock quarterfinal run. Michael Olise (12.06%), Cristiano Ronaldo (2.79%), and Vinicius (2.13%) are also climbing.
The World Cup also sinks candidacies
Conversely, several club stars have seen their chances plummet. Declan Rice suffered the heaviest blow, dropping 68% from 10.89% to 3.45%. Decreases were also felt by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (4.83%), Ousmane Dembélé (12.06%), Raphinha (0.89%), and Julián Álvarez (1.08%). Out of PSG’s pre-tournament top-10 quintet, only those actively performing on the international stage remain in contention.
